If bearish weather holds and production rebounds as expected, pricing may decline as weather fades, supply gains, and a robust storage exit allows the market to look beyond the end of winter.
Bearish fundamentals have dominated winter thus far, dropping national prices to summer levels. Still, CA prices remain elevated, and changing weather patterns could provide support as heating begins to ramp up.
Robust production gains along with a slow start to winter heating demand have been bearish. Still, many winter weeks remain, and there is risk associated with a tightening supply/demand picture.
Recent natural gas price rallies may slow or possibly weaken for a brief period. Be ready to execute a short-term winter hedge quickly. Plan to reevaluate risk tolerance and procurement strategy in spring 2022.
Most fundamentals for natural gas pricing are bullish. There is little keeping natural gas bearish for the future unless massive increases in production and reduced electricity demand are realized.
A confluence of extreme weather, low storage supplies, high U.S. demand, increased LNG exports, and flat production have led to sustained price rallies that are defying expectations.
Natural gas generators have been in high demand to power cooling loads and supplement parched hydropower markets. Booming exports and more steamy weather will keep supplies down and prices up.
With growing concerns about drought conditions in the West and the potential for a warmer than normal summer, prices will remain elevated in the near term.
